Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Roguelike

Only 11 developers shipped a Roguelike Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Card Survival: Fantasy Forest, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $10k against a market of $1.3k. 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 25 announced, ×6.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $89k → $40k
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Median $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $88,591)
Top 5% $749k (exactly $748,760)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 36
Announced 25
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Roguelike
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,996 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $88k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Don't Starve Together 2016 · $169M Don't Starve 2013 · $29M Stoneshard 2020 · EA · $26M Outlaws of the Old West 2019 · EA · $3.3M Terminus: Zombie Survivors 2024 · $2.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Don't Starve Together older $14.99 376,165 94% 11M $169M (exactly $169,161,400) Klei Entertainment
Don't Starve older $9.99 97,007 96% 2.9M $29M (exactly $29,072,998) Klei Entertainment
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
Outlaws of the Old West · EA older $19.99 5,584 58% 168k $3.3M (exactly $3,348,725) Virtual Basement LLC
Terminus: Zombie Survivors older $19.99 4,340 94% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,602,698) Longplay Studios
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Beyond Contact older $19.99 999 71% 30k $599k (exactly $599,100) Playcorp Studios
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Subterrain older $16.99 1,003 79% 30k $511k (exactly $511,229) Pixellore Inc
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo
Dino Path Trail $14.99 197 76% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) Void Pointer
BIG LOOT · EA $15.99 83 68% 2.5k $40k (exactly $39,815) Reverie Clouds
Don't Freeze: A Winter Card Survival · EA $17.99 31 74% 930 $17k (exactly $16,731) YOLO35GAMES
Cross The World · EA $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Redbeehive Games
No Ticket Back: Craft, Survive & Escape $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) GameEraStudios
Surviving Skeleton Island $9.99 14 64% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Bert Games
Tinker-World: Arrival at Kedhreon $6.99 10 90% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) From The Cave, TibiSoft
Flying Universe $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Gold Orange Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.