Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Resource Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Resource Management Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Resource Management

Of 41 developers who shipped a Resource Management Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $36k, ×27 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $13k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×1813 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 93 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 26.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 93 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Resource Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $338k → $11k → $3.2M → $715k → $27k → $4.7k → $290k (still earning) → $36k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Resource Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $12k (exactly $12,199)
Median $36k (exactly $35,976)
Top 25% $442k (exactly $442,323)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 115
Announced 93
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Resource Management
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Resource Management; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Crafting, Survival
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 45,226 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $13k, median $36k, 1 in 4 over $440k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $13k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Forager older $19.99 35,385 90% 1.1M $21M (exactly $21,220,384) HopFrog
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
ASKA · EA older $24.99 10,457 79% 314k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,613) Sand Sailor Studio
Forever Skies $29.99 8,138 78% 244k $7.3M (exactly $7,321,759) Far From Home
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Sandustry · EA $14.99 4,805 97% 144k $2.2M (exactly $2,160,808) Lantto Games
Astrometica · EA $19.99 2,912 82% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326) BeryMery
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
The Last Plague: Blight · EA $16.99 1,402 88% 42k $715k (exactly $714,599) Original Studios
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.