Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + PvE

Of 50 developers who shipped a PvE Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $85k, ×63 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $18k; 1 in 20 cleared $44M, ×32789 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 120 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 63.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 120 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $83k → $115k → $63k → $397k → $458k → $217k (still earning) → $36k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $18k (exactly $17,991)
Median $85k (exactly $84,955)
Top 25% $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715)
Top 5% $44M (exactly $44,166,128)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 119
Announced 120
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, PvE; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Crafting, Exploration
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 676,003 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $18k, median $85k, 1 in 4 over $1.3M, 1 in 20 over $44M.

3 in 10 developers made under $18k. 4 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Valheim 2026 · $418M Dying Light 2015 · $280M Dune: Awakening 2025 · $100M ICARUS 2021 · $59M Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Nightingale · EA older $29.99 15,338 66% 460k $14M (exactly $13,799,599) Inflexion Games
Sunkenland · EA older $19.99 20,536 80% 616k $12M (exactly $12,315,439) Vector3 Studio
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Survive the Nights $19.99 4,719 68% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) a2z Interactive
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.