Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Open World

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Open World Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Open World

Of 158 developers who shipped an Open World Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 361 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $46k, ×34 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $12k; 1 in 20 cleared $19M, ×14322 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 361 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 33.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 361 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Open World
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 158
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $42k → $3.8k → $304k → $195k → $31k → $72k → $71k (still earning) → $22k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Open World: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 158
Bottom 30% $11k (exactly $11,301)
Median $46k (exactly $45,577)
Top 25% $846k (exactly $845,662)
Top 5% $19M (exactly $19,291,367)
Developers, 2 yr 158
Released games 555
Announced 361
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Open World; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Base Building, Survival
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,217,074 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $12k, median $46k, 1 in 4 over $840k, 1 in 20 over $19M.

3 in 10 developers made under $12k. 5 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 361 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Valheim 2026 · $418M Terraria 2011 · $372M Palworld 2026 · $371M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
Subnautica older $29.99 341,390 97% 10M $307M (exactly $307,148,583) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Necesse $14.99 24,425 93% 733k $11M (exactly $10,983,922) Fair Games ApS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.