Do I ship it?

Games › Offroad › Offroad + Vehicular Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vehicular Combat Offroad game?

Offroad + Vehicular Combat

Only 10 developers shipped a Vehicular Combat Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FUMES, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $240 against a market of $1.5k. 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 23 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Offroad + Vehicular Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $718 → $10k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Offroad + Vehicular Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $238 (exactly $238)
Top 25% $718 (exactly $718)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 43
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
Vehicular Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Offroad, Vehicular Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 5 games average 94% positive over 2,866 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Offroad with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + 3D PlatformerLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $69k · 27 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  4. + PvPPoor odds13 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds50 devs · median $2.7k · 71 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds42 devs · median $2.7k · 70 announced
  7. + SportsPoor odds25 devs · median $2.5k · 28 announced
  8. + TransportationPoor odds10 devs · median $2.3k · 26 announced
  9. + Automobile SimPoor odds50 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds57 devs · median $1.3k · 83 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds22 devs · median $1.3k · 50 announced
  12. + NaturePoor odds20 devs · median $1.1k · 34 announced

All 28 pairs on the Offroad page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Need for Speed™ Payback 2020 · $25M Gunner, HEAT, PC! 2022 · EA · $6.8M Naval Action 2019 · $6.1M FlatOut 2007 · $1.3M FUMES 2025 · EA · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ Payback older $29.99 27,424 85% 823k $25M (exactly $24,673,373) Ghost Games
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Naval Action older $19.99 10,187 52% 306k $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) Bermuda Computer Club
FlatOut older $7.49 5,870 91% 176k $1.3M (exactly $1,318,989) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Crashday Redline Edition older $11.99 1,528 89% 46k $550k (exactly $549,622) Moonbyte
Steel Crew · EA older $14.99 543 81% 16k $244k (exactly $244,187) Magnus Ander
Crash Drive 3 older $19.99 219 93% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) M2H
RXC - Rally Cross Challenge · EA older $19.99 73 90% 2.2k $44k (exactly $43,778) Gigabit Games
Super Toy Cars Offroad older $19.99 30 56% 900 $18k (exactly $17,991) Eclipse Games
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development
Autos $3.99 6 0% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Leedo Studio
Car Crash Chaos $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Berk Kalfa
Drift Desert Race $0.99 8 100% 240 $238 (exactly $238) I_Alakey
MonoRace $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SIA BASE LOGIC
Boom Gear $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Asyynk Studios
Buggy Racing Simulator · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games
Base Breakers $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Space Bacon
NitroRun: Off-Road Rush $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Iron Grid Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.