Do I ship it?

GamesOffroadOffroad + Transportation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transportation Offroad game?

Offroad + Transportation

Only 10 developers shipped a Transportation Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Truck Mechanic: Dangerous Paths, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $89k, ×60 the market median. Revenue is up 1025% on the market; 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1025% on the market, 26 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Offroad + Transportation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.6k → $5.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Offroad + Transportation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 5% $90k (exactly $89,955)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 30
Announced 26
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1025% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Offroad, Transportation
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 247 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Offroad with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + 3D PlatformerLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $69k · 27 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  4. + PvPPoor odds13 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds50 devs · median $2.7k · 71 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds42 devs · median $2.7k · 70 announced
  7. + SportsPoor odds25 devs · median $2.5k · 28 announced
  8. + Automobile SimPoor odds50 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds57 devs · median $1.3k · 83 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds22 devs · median $1.3k · 50 announced
  11. + NaturePoor odds20 devs · median $1.1k · 34 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds19 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced

All 28 pairs on the Offroad page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Expeditions: A MudRunner Game older $39.99 3,000 59% 90k $3.6M (exactly $3,599,100) Saber Interactive
Truck Mechanic: Dangerous Paths $19.99 150 60% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Atomic Jelly
Eggcelerate! older $9.99 65 93% 2.0k $19k (exactly $19,480) Tim Beaudet, Tyre Bytes LLC
Virtual Driving School $19.99 32 37% 960 $19k (exactly $19,190) CGA Simulation
Brave Deeds of Rescue Team older $8.99 47 85% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,676) Game Mixer
Offroad: Dead Planet · EA older $19.99 9 88% 270 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Rune Turtle
WITHOUT A HITCH $7.99 21 90% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Codename Entertainment Inc.
Apocalypse Truck Simulator $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Festival of Delusion
TOP TRUCK DRIVER older $9.99 14 64% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Stas Paty9mkin
Car Tuning Simulator older $0.99 129 47% 3.9k $3.8k (exactly $3,831) Boom Games
ADRIFT $12.99 6 100% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) S . K . 9 . 8
Bus Simulator Offroad $7.99 6 16% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Nitx Games
Offroad Frontiers $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Nentori Software LLC
Autos $3.99 6 0% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Leedo Studio
Tractor Driving Simulator $1.99 8 50% 240 $478 (exactly $478) Nitx Games
L.A.W Transporter · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Butter Fly Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.