Should I ship a PvP Offroad game?
PvP + Offroad
Only 13 developers shipped a PvP Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, World of Outlaws: Dirt Racing 24 Gold Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×2.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×195 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $298 (exactly $298) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.3k (exactly $4,287) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $22,794) |
| Top 5% | $292k (exactly $291,527) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 62 |
| Announced | 19 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Offroad; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Racing, Automobile Sim
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 998 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
Need for Speed™ Payback 2020 · $25M 
EA SPORTS™ WRC 2023 · $16M 
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship 2017 · $7.3M 
DIRT 5 2020 · $6.4M 
Naval Action 2019 · $6.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Need for Speed™ Payback | older | $29.99 | 27,424 85% | 823k | $25M (exactly $24,673,373) | Ghost Games |
| | EA SPORTS™ WRC | older | $49.99 | 10,532 61% | 316k | $16M (exactly $15,794,840) | Codemasters |
| | WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship | older | $19.99 | 12,146 82% | 364k | $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) | KT Racing |
| | DIRT 5 | older | $59.99 | 3,530 59% | 106k | $6.4M (exactly $6,352,941) | Codemasters |
| | Naval Action | older | $19.99 | 10,187 52% | 306k | $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) | Bermuda Computer Club |
 | MX vs ATV Legends | older | $39.99 | 4,524 82% | 136k | $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) | Rainbow Studios |
 | WRC Generations – The FIA WRC Official Game | older | $39.99 | 3,345 67% | 100k | $4.0M (exactly $4,012,996) | KT Racing |
 | WRC 10 FIA World Rally Championship | older | $49.99 | 2,657 73% | 80k | $4.0M (exactly $3,984,703) | KT Racing |
 | WRC 9 FIA World Rally Championship | older | $29.99 | 3,642 77% | 109k | $3.3M (exactly $3,276,707) | KT Racing |
 | WRC 8 FIA World Rally Championship | older | $29.99 | 2,007 74% | 60k | $1.8M (exactly $1,805,698) | KT Racing |
 | World of Outlaws: Dirt Racing 24 Gold Edition | $39.99 | 243 89% | 7.3k | $292k (exactly $291,527) | Monster Games, Amber | |
 | Recharge: Room Games | · EA | $19.99 | 313 67% | 9.4k | $188k (exactly $187,706) | Room Games |
 | BeaterCore | $9.99 | 322 82% | 9.7k | $97k (exactly $96,503) | Artem Arbatsky | |
 | Hot Wheels Monster Trucks: Stunt Mayhem™ | $39.99 | 19 63% | 570 | $23k (exactly $22,794) | 3DClouds | |
 | Chaos on Wheels | $9.99 | 34 67% | 1.0k | $10k (exactly $10,190) | Acodeon Development | |
 | Highway Drifter: Hajwala Simulator | $9.99 | 30 86% | 900 | $9.0k (exactly $8,991) | Mad Hook | |
 | MotorCubs RC | $12.99 | 11 72% | 330 | $4.3k (exactly $4,287) | Draisey Digital LLC | |
 | Urban Shadows Racing™ Tokyo | $4.99 | 17 64% | 510 | $2.5k (exactly $2,545) | TechRoar, TechRoarLex | |
 | Dark Rally | $6.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $839 (exactly $839) | PLOP Studio | |
 | Fantasy Car : Car Design Simulator 造车模拟器 | $1.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $298 (exactly $298) | Z's Quest Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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