Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Offroad

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Offroad Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Offroad

Of 50 developers who shipped an Offroad Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×557 the market median. Revenue is up 460% on the market; 74 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 460% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Offroad
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $2.2k → $1.5k → $1.7k → $1.3k → $10k → $1.4k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Offroad: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,731)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,551)
Top 5% $835k (exactly $834,737)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 172
Announced 74
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 460% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Offroad; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Racing, Arcade
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 13,854 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
DiRT Rally 2.0 older $19.99 39,091 89% 1.2M $23M (exactly $23,442,873) Codemasters
MudRunner older $19.99 37,705 91% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,611,688) Saber Interactive
EA SPORTS™ WRC older $49.99 10,532 61% 316k $16M (exactly $15,794,840) Codemasters
WRC 7 FIA World Rally Championship older $19.99 12,146 82% 364k $7.3M (exactly $7,283,956) KT Racing
DIRT 5 older $59.99 3,530 59% 106k $6.4M (exactly $6,352,941) Codemasters
JDM: Japanese Drift Master $34.99 5,217 75% 157k $5.5M (exactly $5,476,285) Gaming Factory
art of rally older $24.99 5,580 92% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,326) Funselektor Labs Inc.
WRC Generations – The FIA WRC Official Game older $39.99 3,345 67% 100k $4.0M (exactly $4,012,996) KT Racing
WRC 10 FIA World Rally Championship older $49.99 2,657 73% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,984,703) KT Racing
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
Old School Rally $12.99 2,142 89% 64k $835k (exactly $834,737) Frozen Lake Games
Pure Rock Crawling $14.99 1,291 83% 39k $581k (exactly $580,563) Maciej Kuzianik
#DRIVE Rally $19.99 743 79% 22k $446k (exactly $445,577) Pixel Perfect Dude
World of Outlaws: Dirt Racing 24 Gold Edition $39.99 243 89% 7.3k $292k (exactly $291,527) Monster Games, Amber
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
Recharge: Room Games · EA $19.99 313 67% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Room Games
ReCharge RC: High Voltage · EA $13.99 393 95% 12k $165k (exactly $164,942) Hondune Games
BeaterCore $9.99 322 82% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,503) Artem Arbatsky

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.