Do I ship it?

GamesOffroadOffroad + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Offroad game?

Offroad + 3D Platformer

Only 14 developers shipped a 3D Platformer Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Chained Wheels, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $92k, ×62 the market median. Revenue is up 3350% on the market; 12 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 3350% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Offroad + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $732 → $210 → $25k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Offroad + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $478 (exactly $478)
Top 25% $8.6k (exactly $8,635)
Top 5% $93k (exactly $92,664)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 34
Announced 12
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3350% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Offroad, 3D Platformer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Driving, Physics
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Funny, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 892 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $480, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $92k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Offroad with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationPoor odds11 devs · median $69k · 27 announced
  2. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  3. + PvPPoor odds13 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced
  4. + PhysicsPoor odds50 devs · median $2.7k · 71 announced
  5. + ExplorationPoor odds42 devs · median $2.7k · 70 announced
  6. + SportsPoor odds25 devs · median $2.5k · 28 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds10 devs · median $2.3k · 26 announced
  8. + Automobile SimPoor odds50 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds57 devs · median $1.3k · 83 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds22 devs · median $1.3k · 50 announced
  11. + NaturePoor odds20 devs · median $1.1k · 34 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds19 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced

All 28 pairs on the Offroad page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Yellow Taxi Goes Vroom older $16.99 1,621 97% 49k $826k (exactly $826,224) Panik Arcade
Chained Wheels $4.99 619 69% 19k $93k (exactly $92,664) Karga Games
Dangerous Mountain Together $4.99 164 73% 4.9k $25k (exactly $24,551) Çağatay Demir, Doğukan Şahin
N3Rally · EA $19.99 37 89% 1.1k $22k (exactly $22,189) nae3apps
Supermarket Shriek older $19.99 19 89% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Billy Goat Entertainment Ltd
Jet Car Stunts older $2.99 120 81% 3.6k $11k (exactly $10,764) GRIP Digital s.r.o.
Designated Driver Simulator · EA $17.99 16 62% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) PostSIM
Drive Up older $4.99 39 51% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Astrasoft
Resoraki: The racing older $0.99 123 68% 3.7k $3.7k (exactly $3,653) Airem
Deedlee Doo! Carkour! $3.99 29 96% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) Just Purkey Games
MX Racing World $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Nitx Games
Beach Bass $2.44 10 100% 300 $732 (exactly $732) Crow Studios
Tractor Driving Simulator $1.99 8 50% 240 $478 (exactly $478) Nitx Games
Vector Horizon $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Solara
Up To Divine $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) GHSPG

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.