Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Nature

Only 7 developers shipped a Nature Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Day of the Shell, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×15 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $9.0k against a market of $630. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 14.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 15 announced, ×15 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $243k → $7.2k
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,994)
Top 25% $84k (exactly $83,958)
Top 5% $172k (exactly $171,785)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 34
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 85% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 12,274 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.2k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $83k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.2k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×15 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Niche - a genetics survival game older $17.99 4,356 88% 131k $2.4M (exactly $2,350,933) Stray Fawn Studio
Reus 2 older $24.99 2,133 94% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,110) Abbey Games
Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten older $59.99 759 80% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) AQUAPLUS
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Quilts and Cats of Calico older $19.99 405 93% 12k $243k (exactly $242,878) Monster Couch
Day of the Shell $14.99 382 68% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Duper Games
Golf Peaks older $4.99 1,076 95% 32k $161k (exactly $161,077) Afterburn
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Fate of the World older $9.99 398 79% 12k $119k (exactly $119,281) Red Redemption
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio
Prickle $6.99 87 100% 2.6k $18k (exactly $18,244) Sunbird Studio
K2: Digital Edition $14.99 20 85% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Devon Games
Mycelium Heaven $9.99 24 95% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) 3DGoblinDev
Alma and the Fragments of Cursed Memories $9.99 13 69% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) wagasi biyori
Rumbly $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) SeedGameStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.