Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Nature

Only 15 developers shipped a Nature Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×828 the market median. Revenue is up 620% on the market; 38 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 620% on the market, 38 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $598 → $150 → $599 → $8.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 5% $520k (exactly $520,113)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 45
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 620% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG
Price point
$6.66 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 717 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen 2021 · $2.4M Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten 2022 · $1.4M Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered 2026 · $520k Hive Blight 2026 · EA · $138k Tenderfoot Tactics 2020 · $99k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen older $59.99 1,328 93% 40k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) AQUAPLUS
Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten older $59.99 759 80% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) AQUAPLUS
Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered $59.99 289 83% 8.7k $520k (exactly $520,113) AQUAPLUS
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Tenderfoot Tactics older $14.99 220 81% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Isa Hutchins… (Kevin Maxon, Michael Bell, Isa Hutchinson, Taylor Thomas, Zoe Vartanian, Madison Pathe)
Outbreak: Contagious Memories older $29.99 30 63% 900 $27k (exactly $26,991) Dead Drop Studios LLC
Squids Odyssey older $14.99 37 81% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) The Game Bakers
Survival Africa older $16.99 22 36% 660 $11k (exactly $11,213) MeanDean
Rock and Roots older $14.99 18 77% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) XOCUS
Spirit Dungeon · EA $9.99 27 51% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Nemora Games
Solnox - Grimoire of Seasons $6.66 12 75% 360 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) ByteRockers' Games
Umbra Flora $9.99 6 83% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) ActuallyAMacaw, Gigantic G
Kadin the Soul Eater $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Kedaku
SAE · EA $12.99 3 0% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) SAE GAMES
The Farming Frontier $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Cuneyt Aliustaoglu
The Last Bug $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) 苦柚Games
Lost Kingdom: Idle War $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) AGS GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.