Do I ship it?

Games › PvP › PvP + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature PvP game?

PvP + Nature

Of 74 developers who shipped a Nature PvP game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 185 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build. 42 developers shipped in the last year and 185 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 185 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 74
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.1k → $1.9k → $449 → $718 → $120 → $1.8k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 74
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 5% $988k (exactly $988,035)
Developers, 2 yr 74
Released games 228
Announced 185
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.85

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvE, Simulation
Price point
$5.85 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.85.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 12,189 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $980k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 185 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Gorilla Tag 2023 · $32M Wingspan 2020 · $5.9M Longvinter 2025 · $4.2M Walkabout Mini Golf VR 2021 · $2.3M Animalia Survival 2021 · EA · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gorilla Tag older $19.99 52,637 93% 1.6M $32M (exactly $31,566,409) Another Axiom Inc.
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
Animalia Survival · EA older $19.99 2,823 64% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,692,953) High Brazil Studio
Empire of the Ants $39.99 931 73% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) Tower Five
Lost Rift · EA $24.99 1,465 67% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310) People Can Fly
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
Oh Deer older $9.99 2,125 84% 64k $637k (exactly $636,862) Cozy Cabin Studios
Lonely Mountains: Snow Riders $24.99 749 91% 22k $562k (exactly $561,525) Megagon Industries
TETRIS® THE GRAND MASTER 4 -ABSOLUTE EYE- $24.99 610 87% 18k $457k (exactly $457,317) ARIKA
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Cascadia $14.99 210 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Dire Wolf
Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean $14.99 119 33% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Fishing Cactus
Hoofobia $6.99 178 68% 5.3k $37k (exactly $37,327) Deathyell Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.