Do I ship it?

Games › Open World Survival Craft › Open World Survival Craft + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Nature

Only 19 developers shipped a Nature Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Len's Island, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $46k, ×34 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $15k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.4M, ×3303 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 46 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 33.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $205k → $2.7k → $11k → $4.2M → $72k → $50k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $14,393)
Median $46k (exactly $45,577)
Top 25% $463k (exactly $462,565)
Top 5% $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 68
Announced 46
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft; all of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Crafting, Exploration
Price point
$16.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 17,551 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $46k, 1 in 4 over $460k, 1 in 20 over $4.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ICARUS 2021 · $59M Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey 2020 · $12M Eco 2018 · EA · $10M Len's Island 2025 · $4.4M Longvinter 2025 · $4.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey older $39.99 9,794 81% 294k $12M (exactly $11,749,862) Panache Digital Games
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Len's Island $24.99 5,935 82% 178k $4.4M (exactly $4,449,470) Flow Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
Wildmender older $24.99 1,797 85% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,347,211) Muse Games
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games
Lost Rift · EA $24.99 1,465 67% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310) People Can Fly
cyubeVR · EA older $29.99 1,066 90% 32k $959k (exactly $959,080) Stonebrick Studios
Arctico older $9.99 2,207 70% 66k $661k (exactly $661,438) Claudio Norori, Antonio Vargas
The Gold River Project · EA $24.99 617 62% 19k $463k (exactly $462,565) Fairview Games Inc.
No Man's Home · EA $9.99 268 86% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,320) radrunner
Frost Survival VR $14.99 161 89% 4.8k $72k (exactly $72,402) Wenkly Studio Sp. z o.o.
Island Beekeeper $11.99 191 72% 5.7k $69k (exactly $68,703) Akuseru Studio
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
ASTROBOTANICA · EA $19.99 76 59% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Space Goblin Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.