Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Mythology

Only 16 developers shipped a Mythological Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Aethermancer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×53 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3209 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 53.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 18 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $84k → $34k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $7.3k (exactly $7,340)
Median $33k (exactly $33,289)
Top 25% $76k (exactly $76,449)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 42
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Dungeon Crawler, Perma Death
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $25.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $25.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,863 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.4k, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $76k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.4k. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
Dominions 4: Thrones of Ascension older $34.99 1,124 89% 34k $1.2M (exactly $1,179,863) Illwinter Game Design
Operencia: The Stolen Sun older $29.99 537 76% 16k $483k (exactly $483,139) Zen Studios
Sword and Fairy 3 older $7.99 1,936 84% 58k $464k (exactly $464,059) SOFTSTAR TECHNOLOGY(SHANGHAI)
道衍诀 · EA older $11.99 988 49% 30k $355k (exactly $355,384) 宁德动游网络科技有限公司
Blood Rage: Digital Edition older $19.99 477 58% 14k $286k (exactly $286,057) Endava
Six Ages: Ride Like the Wind older $19.99 460 81% 14k $276k (exactly $275,862) A Sharp
Hungry Horrors · EA $14.99 209 98% 6.3k $94k (exactly $93,987) Clumsy Bear Studio
Shields of Loyalty $19.99 140 77% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mosaic Mask Studio
Spear Song · EA $14.99 170 88% 5.1k $76k (exactly $76,449) Divovision Games
Guards II: Chaos in Hell $15.99 125 96% 3.8k $60k (exactly $59,962) Battlecruiser Games
壶中日月 Timeless Teapot $4.99 384 77% 12k $57k (exactly $57,485) 壶天云镜
Relief $9.99 112 70% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Billiontail
KAMiBAKO - Mythology of Cube - $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) GRAVITY GAME ARISE
Talespinner $14.99 53 71% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Flash Cat Games
Cultivation Story: Infinite Sword Realm · EA $14.99 48 75% 1.4k $22k (exactly $21,586) Bid Pond Studio Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.