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Should I ship a Visual Novel Mystery Dungeon?
Mystery Dungeon + Visual Novel
Of 27 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $810, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $69k, ×146 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 13 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $809 (exactly $809) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $10,522) |
| Top 5% | $70k (exactly $69,583) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 27 |
| Released games | 65 |
| Announced | 13 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Mystery Dungeon
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Mystery Dungeon, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Hand-drawn
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,211 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGStrong odds
- + TacticalStrong odds
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Tactical RPGFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + SimulationFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + HistoricalFair
- + PhysicsFair
Comparable games
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- 2018 · $1.8M 
Omega Labyrinth Life 2019 · $473k 
The Coma 2B: Catacomb 2024 · $263k 
Ark of Artemis 2021 · $147k 
Dracula: Love Kills 2013 · $89k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- | older | $34.99 | 1,734 93% | 52k | $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) | AQUASTYLE |
| | Omega Labyrinth Life | older | $59.99 | 263 64% | 7.9k | $473k (exactly $473,321) | Matrix |
| | The Coma 2B: Catacomb | $14.99 | 584 75% | 18k | $263k (exactly $262,625) | Dvora Studio Co., Ltd. | |
| | Ark of Artemis | older | $17.99 | 272 81% | 8.2k | $147k (exactly $146,798) | Kujirabo。 |
| | Dracula: Love Kills | older | $9.99 | 298 80% | 8.9k | $89k (exactly $89,311) | Waterlily Games |
 | Death end re;Quest: Code Z | $39.99 | 58 72% | 1.7k | $70k (exactly $69,583) | Idea Factory, Compile Heart | |
 | Gears of Dragoon: Fragments of a New Era | older | $34.99 | 59 76% | 1.8k | $62k (exactly $61,932) | Ninetail |
 | Sorcery Saga: Curse of the Great Curry God | older | $19.99 | 102 64% | 3.1k | $61k (exactly $61,169) | Idea Factory |
 | Shana - Priestess of Tona | $9.99 | 190 74% | 5.7k | $57k (exactly $56,943) | Lustration Team | |
 | Slave Princess Finne, why did she sell out her own kingdom? | older | $17.99 | 82 87% | 2.5k | $44k (exactly $44,255) | Circle Fairy Flower |
 | Alisa's Grimoire | $16.99 | 77 87% | 2.3k | $39k (exactly $39,247) | Circle Kurasuke Warehouse | |
 | Aquilon's Sex Quest | $6.99 | 112 70% | 3.4k | $23k (exactly $23,486) | Aquilon | |
 | ACCIDENTALLY | $12.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $12k (exactly $11,691) | M&K WORKS | |
 | The Lazy Demon Lord and the Four Stones of Dispel | $12.99 | 27 55% | 810 | $11k (exactly $10,522) | I-guruwan | |
 | Damsels in Distress | $8.99 | 36 83% | 1.1k | $9.7k (exactly $9,709) | Anime Mania | |
 | NTR LIFE | $3.99 | 70 74% | 2.1k | $8.4k (exactly $8,379) | Jpegsama | |
 | Vastophobia | · EA | $7.99 | 27 92% | 810 | $6.5k (exactly $6,472) | Beyond reason Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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