Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon JRPG?

JRPG + Mystery Dungeon

Of 43 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×33 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $1.2k. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 23 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.4 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 32.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 23 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $27k → $18k → $21k → $9.7k → $21k → $25k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $39,247)
Top 5% $590k (exactly $589,505)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 136
Announced 23
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 11,720 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  3. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  4. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  5. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  8. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  9. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  10. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementFair36 devs · median $2.7k · 27 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- 2018 · $1.8M Escape Dungeon 2 2022 · $917k FANTASIAN Neo Dimension 2024 · $750k FALL IN LABYRINTH 2021 · $643k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Escape Dungeon 2 older $17.99 1,700 93% 51k $917k (exactly $917,490) Hide Games
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
FALL IN LABYRINTH older $19.99 1,073 95% 32k $643k (exactly $643,478) JUKKAKU GAMES
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Shiren the Wanderer: The Tower of Fortune and the Dice of Fate older $19.99 891 75% 27k $534k (exactly $534,333) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Omega Labyrinth Life older $59.99 263 64% 7.9k $473k (exactly $473,321) Matrix
Dungeon Drafters older $24.99 563 76% 17k $422k (exactly $422,081) Manalith Studios
One Way Heroics older $3.49 3,503 94% 105k $367k (exactly $366,764) Smoking WOLF
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Sakura Gozen $16.99 320 96% 9.6k $163k (exactly $163,104) kaniheadcrab
Warrior Maiden Lecia and the Lost Fortress $19.99 149 85% 4.5k $89k (exactly $89,355) Kuroto Zakka
Death end re;Quest: Code Z $39.99 58 72% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Laura of Reigetsu $17.99 88 81% 2.6k $47k (exactly $47,494) piyokogundan
Gehenna $19.99 78 79% 2.3k $47k (exactly $46,777) Kemuriya

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.