Do I ship it?

GamesBullet HellBullet Hell + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Bullet Hell?

Bullet Hell + Mystery Dungeon

Only 14 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Bullet Hell in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Touhou ~Red Empress Devil., made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 18 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Hell + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $598 → $2.9k → $3.0k → $1.8k (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Hell + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $118,129)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 36
Announced 18
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Hell, Mystery Dungeon; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Roguelike, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 571 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Hell with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroStrong odds11 devs · median $3.4k · 7 announced
  2. + FaithFair26 devs · median $17k · 29 announced
  3. + VampiresFair43 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair24 devs · median $3.4k · 33 announced
  5. + Strategy RPGFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  6. + PiratesFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 20 announced
  7. + CatsFair44 devs · median $1.7k · 59 announced
  8. + HackingFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 17 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 15 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 22 announced
  11. + DemonsFair101 devs · median $1.2k · 125 announced
  12. + Naval CombatFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced

All 185 pairs on the Bullet Hell page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Full Mojo Rampage older $12.99 524 85% 16k $204k (exactly $204,203) Over the Top Games
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Diabolic older $2.99 307 84% 9.2k $28k (exactly $27,538) MyDreamForever
F*ck the HELL out older $4.99 95 86% 2.9k $14k (exactly $14,222) Galactic Geckon
Holy Shot $5.99 53 84% 1.6k $9.5k (exactly $9,524) LoneWolf Digital Arts
Old Tunnel older $8.99 29 72% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) HugePixel
Hunter Girls older $4.99 50 78% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) ·
Radioactive Dwarfs: Evil From The Sewers older $4.99 44 95% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) Slay Buherman
Adventure Rush older $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) MrBoscheinen
Ritual: Spellcasting RPG older $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Hexage
Unwanted Dungeon $7.99 18 88% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Conrado Saud, Conrado Saud
DOWNMOUSE $3.99 25 92% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) WobblyHandStudio
Grabbus · EA $6.99 14 78% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Foxoplasm, LLC
Demon Street $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Manycats Games
Launch And Loot $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Lua Ludica
Zelash: Dash and Slash $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Chris Aceto
The Power of Doznath $3.99 5 100% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Finebow Games
Strange Hunting Grounds · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) GaniTani

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.