Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Romance

Only 12 developers shipped a Romance Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lord Ambermaze, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $2.0k. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $1.1k → $2.5k → $29k
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,755)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,053)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $58,911)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 30
Announced 10
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 459 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  5. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  7. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  8. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  10. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  11. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + ThrillerFair34 devs · median $538 · 28 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Boyfriend Dungeon older $19.99 2,105 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,368) Kitfox Games
From Frontier older $15.99 359 96% 11k $172k (exactly $172,212) Doubles Core
Dungeon Dreams 2 older $19.99 209 90% 6.3k $125k (exactly $125,337) DDreams Games
Yes My Lord older $14.99 204 95% 6.1k $92k (exactly $91,739) Doubles Core
Gears of Dragoon: Fragments of a New Era older $34.99 59 76% 1.8k $62k (exactly $61,932) Ninetail
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Hero in an All-Forgiving Fantasy World RPG $16.99 74 74% 2.2k $38k (exactly $37,718) INAZUMA GAMES
Enatus Radi older $16.99 71 85% 2.1k $36k (exactly $36,189) Crazy Nirin
The Cuniculus of Paradise $16.99 57 87% 1.7k $29k (exactly $29,053) Doubles Core
Aquilon's Sex Quest $6.99 112 70% 3.4k $23k (exactly $23,486) Aquilon
Monster Lily $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Kasha Club
Senpai and the Mysterious Island $11.99 16 37% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Ruhut Soft
The Backrooms: Forsaken $5.99 14 71% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Fred Grant Studios
ORPHEUS: TO HELL AND BACK $2.99 25 68% 750 $2.2k (exactly $2,242) StudioLoading, Kibou Entertainment, Alu… (StudioLoading, Kibou Entertainment, Alunite,Inc.)
Dead Silence - Echoes of the Damned $4.99 13 38% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Persian Dare
Devil Hearts $16.99 3 66% 90 $1.5k (exactly $1,529) DDreams Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.