Do I ship it?

Games › Mystery Dungeon › Mystery Dungeon + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Underground

Of 32 developers who shipped an Underground Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×331 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 39 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 39 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $594 → $270 → $2.5k → $3.0k → $386 (still earning) → $105 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,084)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $157,053)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 104
Announced 39
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,013 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Spark in the Dark 2026 · EA · $598k Goblin Dungeons 2025 · $157k Skeletal Avenger 2021 · $81k Lord Ambermaze 2025 · $59k ARKOS 2021 · $54k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spark in the Dark · EA $16.99 1,174 87% 35k $598k (exactly $598,388) Stellar Fish
Goblin Dungeons $17.99 291 83% 8.7k $157k (exactly $157,053) Loolust
Skeletal Avenger older $16.99 158 82% 4.7k $81k (exactly $80,533) 10tons Ltd
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
ARKOS older $9.99 179 78% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,646) RetroSouls
Elmarion: the Lost Temple $14.99 93 67% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Fleon Games
Runehaven $9.99 119 91% 3.6k $36k (exactly $35,664) Cikoria Studio
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Death Below older $9.99 63 58% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Soft
No Parachute older $4.99 116 89% 3.5k $17k (exactly $17,365) Wherry
ARKOS 2 $12.99 34 91% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) RetroSouls
Rusty Rangers $14.99 27 88% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Fantastica!
Digging the Forgotten Cave $4.99 54 75% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) Cavernauts
Slendrina Remake $3.99 65 63% 2.0k $7.8k (exactly $7,780) GearMech
DOWNMOUSE $3.99 25 92% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) WobblyHandStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.