Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Mystery Dungeon

Only 9 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FANTASIAN Neo Dimension, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.4k against a market of $630. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 7 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,075)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $58,911)
Top 5% $750k (exactly $749,850)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 37
Announced 7
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 12,492 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
Shiren the Wanderer: The Tower of Fortune and the Dice of Fate older $19.99 891 75% 27k $534k (exactly $534,333) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Tangledeep older $14.99 1,075 82% 32k $483k (exactly $483,428) Impact Gameworks
Omega Labyrinth Life older $59.99 263 64% 7.9k $473k (exactly $473,321) Matrix
One Way Heroics older $3.49 3,503 94% 105k $367k (exactly $366,764) Smoking WOLF
The Enchanted Cave 2 older $9.99 738 89% 22k $221k (exactly $221,179) dustinaux
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
The World is Your Weapon older $9.99 646 97% 19k $194k (exactly $193,606) kagaya
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Collateral Dungeon $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Techosaurus Studios
The Dungeon Paradox $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Digital Software
Probability Dungeon $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) NiNauk
Box Dungeons $1.99 18 88% 540 $1.1k (exactly $1,075) Mito Games
The Tower of Shadows $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Alien Création
RISING FOOL $11.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) AOSHIMAN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.