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Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Mystery Dungeon?
Mystery Dungeon + Traditional Roguelike
Of 25 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×1187 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 39 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $120 (exactly $120) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,436) |
| Top 25% | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) |
| Top 5% | $564k (exactly $563,859) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 59 |
| Announced | 39 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Mystery Dungeon
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Traditional Roguelike
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Mystery Dungeon, Traditional Roguelike; all of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, RPG, Roguelike
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 9,781 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGStrong odds
- + TacticalStrong odds
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Tactical RPGFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + SimulationFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + HistoricalFair
- + PhysicsFair
Comparable games
Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M 
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- 2018 · $1.8M 
Shattered Pixel Dungeon 2022 · $631k 
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island 2024 · $564k 
Shiren the Wanderer: The Tower of Fortune and the Dice of Fate 2020 · $534k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
| | Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- | older | $34.99 | 1,734 93% | 52k | $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) | AQUASTYLE |
| | Shattered Pixel Dungeon | older | $9.99 | 2,106 95% | 63k | $631k (exactly $631,168) | Shattered Pixel |
| | Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island | $39.99 | 470 85% | 14k | $564k (exactly $563,859) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
| | Shiren the Wanderer: The Tower of Fortune and the Dice of Fate | older | $19.99 | 891 75% | 27k | $534k (exactly $534,333) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | Tangledeep | older | $14.99 | 1,075 82% | 32k | $483k (exactly $483,428) | Impact Gameworks |
 | One Way Heroics | older | $3.49 | 3,503 94% | 105k | $367k (exactly $366,764) | Smoking WOLF |
 | Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure 2 | older | $24.99 | 342 89% | 10k | $256k (exactly $256,397) | NEKOTOKAGE GAMES |
 | House of Necrosis | $11.99 | 581 94% | 17k | $209k (exactly $208,986) | Warkus | |
 | Mystery Chronicle: One Way Heroics | older | $9.99 | 413 61% | 12k | $124k (exactly $123,776) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- | $24.99 | 160 49% | 4.8k | $120k (exactly $119,952) | Square Enix | |
 | HoloDungeon: Koyori vs HollowLive in Honsha Tower | · EA | $12.99 | 84 72% | 2.5k | $33k (exactly $32,735) | VELUX STUDIO |
 | Feywood Wanderers | $14.99 | 37 86% | 1.1k | $17k (exactly $16,639) | Vicente Miranda | |
 | Monster Lily | $14.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) | Kasha Club | |
 | [English] AbsentedAge 2: Ghostbound | $15.99 | 8 100% | 240 | $3.8k (exactly $3,838) | terunon's Lab | |
 | 不思議の大冒険 チルノ見参！２ | $9.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | CrossLodge | |
 | Collateral Dungeon | $9.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) | Techosaurus Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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