Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Top-Down Shooter?

Mystery Dungeon + Top-Down Shooter

Only 9 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Touhou ~Red Empress Devil., made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 17 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $809 → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $118,129)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 28
Announced 17
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Top-Down Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,034 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou ~Red Empress Devil. $8.99 438 70% 13k $118k (exactly $118,129) STUDIO POCO
Diabolic older $2.99 307 84% 9.2k $28k (exactly $27,538) MyDreamForever
F*ck the HELL out older $4.99 95 86% 2.9k $14k (exactly $14,222) Galactic Geckon
Holy Shot $5.99 53 84% 1.6k $9.5k (exactly $9,524) LoneWolf Digital Arts
Lost Scale: Part One older $24.99 10 90% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) Danicy
Radioactive Dwarfs: Evil From The Sewers older $4.99 44 95% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) Slay Buherman
Guns And Draguns older $12.99 14 100% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Infinite Stairs
Mustache in Hell older $2.99 43 95% 1.3k $3.9k (exactly $3,857) IdunaSoft
Seeker Quest: The Creature Collector $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Jestercraft
Fish or Chicken Chicken Survivor older $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) XXL
Arrow Dungeon $8.99 3 33% 90 $809 (exactly $809) ParkDol
Dream's frog $1.99 6 100% 180 $358 (exactly $358) Slay Buherman
Realmlords · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) UltraPwned Gaming
Scout-TheBunker $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) MadMilan
Endless Robot dash $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 0cd studio
Stealth-Rogue-Escape · EA $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Mysterious Legion

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.