Do I ship it?

Games › Mystery Dungeon › Mystery Dungeon + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Supernatural

Of 38 developers who shipped a Supernatural Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 42 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 42 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $239 → $449 → $210 → $0 → $599 → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 5% $193k (exactly $193,423)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 73
Announced 42
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,938 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy 2026 · $5.3M Unmourned 2025 · $193k Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire 2024 · $25k Soul's Spectrum 2023 · $8.2k No Man's Island 2023 · $8.1k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Unmourned $24.99 258 79% 7.7k $193k (exactly $193,423) Codebros Studio
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
Soul's Spectrum older $7.99 34 94% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) Thund Games
No Man's Island older $9.99 27 40% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Rif Game Studio
Traumada older $3.99 50 92% 1.5k $6.0k (exactly $5,985) James Horn
La Llorona Wants Your Soul $9.99 18 50% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Focka Games
The Nefargad older $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Oriseus Studios
Parnitha: Patient 66 $5.99 22 81% 660 $4.0k (exactly $3,953) Nick Jordan Games
OUTSTAND older $9.99 13 7% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Eskrima Games
MeMic $7.99 11 63% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) OnlineKingdom
Ghost Restaurant $6.99 12 100% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Akrelia Studio
Crimson Mansion $11.99 6 50% 180 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Bence Pachinger-Molnár
Forlorn: The mysteries of Highshadowland $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) The Spiteful Games
Demon Street $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Manycats Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.