Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Shoot 'Em Up?

Mystery Dungeon + Shoot 'Em Up

Only 6 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DOWNMOUSE, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $120 against a market of $480. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 7 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $120 (exactly $120)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 5% $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 25
Announced 7
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $4.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 649 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $120, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $2.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spooky Station older $4.99 345 88% 10k $52k (exactly $51,646) Coletivo Vaca Roxa, Vee, JoyMasher, PKO… (Coletivo Vaca Roxa, Vee, JoyMasher, PKO Game Studio, Spookids Team, Calangames, Expresso Studios, Pastel Studios, Heavy Sheep, LASTONE, Asteristic Game Studio)
F*ck the HELL out older $4.99 95 86% 2.9k $14k (exactly $14,222) Galactic Geckon
Masked Forces 2: Mystic Demons older $4.99 67 73% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,030) FreezeNova
Lost Scale: Part One older $24.99 10 90% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) Danicy
Radioactive Dwarfs: Evil From The Sewers older $4.99 44 95% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) Slay Buherman
Adventure Rush older $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) MrBoscheinen
Ritual: Spellcasting RPG older $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Hexage
DOWNMOUSE $3.99 25 92% 750 $3.0k (exactly $2,992) WobblyHandStudio
Seeker Quest: The Creature Collector $6.99 14 100% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Jestercraft
Dead No-Head older $4.99 13 61% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) BT Studios
Dungeons Bomb $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) MARIOZY
Flooded Lands $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) OpxGaming
Medieval Halloween VR · EA $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Eternal Drift Studio LLC
County Hospital Outbreak $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) LFR Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.