Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Sci-fi

Of 34 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 14 developers shipped in the last year and 30 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $9.3k → $2.7k → $1.1k → $538 → $1.5k → $119 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $1,978)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $217,249)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 96
Announced 30
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,775 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ENDLESS Dungeon™ - Definitive Edition older $14.99 2,953 64% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,964) AMPLITUDE Studios
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Cosmonious High older $19.99 230 94% 6.9k $138k (exactly $137,931) Owlchemy Labs
The Land Beneath Us older $14.99 230 79% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) FairPlay Studios
Stifled - Echolocation Horror Mystery older $19.99 78 70% 2.3k $47k (exactly $46,777) Gattai Games
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
The Cuniculus of Paradise $16.99 57 87% 1.7k $29k (exactly $29,053) Doubles Core
Eclipse older $2.99 173 68% 5.2k $16k (exactly $15,518) MadRock
DEATH BURGER $6.99 60 98% 1.8k $13k (exactly $12,582) lemorion_1224
They See Us $3.99 60 85% 1.8k $7.2k (exactly $7,182) MalumGames
Mech Shuffle $9.99 19 94% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) PillBugGames
Quantum Sleeper $8.99 18 100% 540 $4.9k (exactly $4,855) Helm Boy Studios
Grabbus · EA $6.99 14 78% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Foxoplasm, LLC
Theralite $10.99 6 100% 180 $2.0k (exactly $1,978) DualBitz
Catalina's Horror Adventure $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Lazy Dev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.