Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Runner?

Mystery Dungeon + Runner

Only 10 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Pilgrim's Progress, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $60 against a market of $480. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 7 announced, ×7.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $479 → $270 → $60
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $60 (exactly $60)
Top 25% $270 (exactly $270)
Top 5% $750 (exactly $750)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 32
Announced 7
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 90% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Runner
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 38% positive over 8 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $60, 1 in 4 over $270, 1 in 20 over $750.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
Man in gravity older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Hunter Girls older $4.99 50 78% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) ·
Neko Journey older $4.99 29 58% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Feas, Axyos Games
bloody lonely cold older $2.99 34 41% 1.0k $3.1k (exactly $3,050) yx
Survive the Jurassic older $5.99 15 13% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) John tex
Chameneon older $1.99 37 94% 1.1k $2.2k (exactly $2,209) Burning Goat Studio
FartGirl · EA older $4.99 13 46% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) KYUHWAN
Shy Eye Labyrinth: The Incredible Mystery older $9.99 5 40% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Main Quest
The Pilgrim's Progress $24.99 1 100% 30 $750 (exactly $750) Elvio Lujan
The Night of Escape $3.99 3 0% 90 $359 (exactly $359) LiTang
BlackHoleMaze $8.99 1 0% 30 $270 (exactly $270) PENGHAO
Forgotten spirit $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BurningGRP
Jump Potato $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) TeamRevolutionX
Sports Girl: Village $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) 2024-NGame
Maze escape $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ZZ
Hotel Security $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gyoddam Games
Endless Robot dash $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 0cd studio
Unbeatable Maze $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Logical Fun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.