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Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Roguelike?
Mystery Dungeon + Roguelike
Of 135 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 191 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×457 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 191 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,529) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,089) |
| Top 5% | $217k (exactly $217,249) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 135 |
| Released games | 349 |
| Announced | 191 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Mystery Dungeon
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Roguelike
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Mystery Dungeon, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, RPG, Strategy
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 14,595 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 191 games are announced against 83 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGStrong odds
- + TacticalStrong odds
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + Tactical RPGFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + SimulationFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + HistoricalFair
- + PhysicsFair
Comparable games
Elin 2024 · EA · $5.0M 
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- 2018 · $1.8M 
ENDLESS Dungeon™ - Definitive Edition 2023 · $1.3M 
Escape Dungeon 2 2022 · $917k 
Vivid Knight 2021 · $735k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
| | Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- | older | $34.99 | 1,734 93% | 52k | $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) | AQUASTYLE |
| | ENDLESS Dungeon™ - Definitive Edition | older | $14.99 | 2,953 64% | 89k | $1.3M (exactly $1,327,964) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Escape Dungeon 2 | older | $17.99 | 1,700 93% | 51k | $917k (exactly $917,490) | Hide Games |
| | Vivid Knight | older | $14.99 | 1,635 89% | 49k | $735k (exactly $735,260) | Asobism.Co.,Ltd |
 | FALL IN LABYRINTH | older | $19.99 | 1,073 95% | 32k | $643k (exactly $643,478) | JUKKAKU GAMES |
 | Shattered Pixel Dungeon | older | $9.99 | 2,106 95% | 63k | $631k (exactly $631,168) | Shattered Pixel |
 | The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith | $19.99 | 983 58% | 29k | $590k (exactly $589,505) | Ason | |
 | Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island | $39.99 | 470 85% | 14k | $564k (exactly $563,859) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Shiren the Wanderer: The Tower of Fortune and the Dice of Fate | older | $19.99 | 891 75% | 27k | $534k (exactly $534,333) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | Skull Horde | $12.99 | 1,083 81% | 32k | $422k (exactly $422,045) | 8BitSkull | |
 | Vivid World | $19.99 | 591 88% | 18k | $354k (exactly $354,423) | Asobism.Co.,Ltd | |
 | Guidus Zero | $14.99 | 609 75% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | izzle | |
 | Villages & Dungeons | $6.99 | 1,036 91% | 31k | $217k (exactly $217,249) | CaCaFrog Studio | |
 | House of Necrosis | $11.99 | 581 94% | 17k | $209k (exactly $208,986) | Warkus | |
 | Goblin Dungeons | $17.99 | 291 83% | 8.7k | $157k (exactly $157,053) | Loolust | |
 | Legacy of Defense | $7.99 | 545 72% | 16k | $131k (exactly $130,636) | Enter the Game Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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