Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Mystery Dungeon

Only 12 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Guidus Zero, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 3 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 970% on the market, 3 announced, ×0.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $240 (exactly $240)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $274k (exactly $273,867)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 29
Announced 3
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 970% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 75% positive over 670 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
We Are The Dwarves older $14.99 1,072 75% 32k $482k (exactly $482,078) Whale Rock Games
Guidus Zero $14.99 609 75% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) izzle
The Land Beneath Us older $14.99 230 79% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) FairPlay Studios
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
Silent Slayer: Vault of the Vampire $19.99 41 70% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Schell Games
The Rings of Powder older $12.99 45 95% 1.4k $18k (exactly $17,536) Artificial Worlds
Dungeons Of The Deep older $14.99 22 59% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Gray Mantis
Mostly Intense Monster Defense older $4.99 47 87% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) Patsui Games
Endorfire Tower Defense older $9.99 19 68% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) The Zoo
Kanji Industry · EA older $6.99 26 92% 780 $5.5k (exactly $5,452) Tsune Studio
Drag'N Dungeon $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Demon Girl
Dungeon Fortress : Overlord · EA $14.99 1 0% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Boonplay
Dream's frog $1.99 6 100% 180 $358 (exactly $358) Slay Buherman
150 Floors · EA $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Bindlestick Media
Li O's Online World $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Lil knee Games
Light'Em Up $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Tiny Launches
Hotel Security $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gyoddam Games
Can't You Run? · EA $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) AkionGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.