Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Puzzle

Of 130 developers who shipped a Puzzle Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 180 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 72 developers shipped in the last year and 180 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 180 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 130
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $748 → $298 → $535 → $90 → $479 → $298 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 130
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $298 (exactly $298)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $28k (exactly $27,872)
Developers, 2 yr 130
Released games 405
Announced 180
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Mystery Dungeon, Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 5,614 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $27k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 180 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
In Verbis Virtus older $19.99 1,464 78% 44k $878k (exactly $877,961) Indomitus Games
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
Hourglass older $19.99 331 88% 9.9k $199k (exactly $198,501) Cyberwave
Dungeon Digger older $39.99 98 81% 2.9k $118k (exactly $117,571) Galactic Geckon
Baldo: The Guardian Owls older $19.99 185 65% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Naps Team
Dungeons of Dreadrock older $5.99 513 94% 15k $92k (exactly $92,186) Prof. Dr. Christoph Minnameier
Dracula: Love Kills older $9.99 298 80% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Waterlily Games
Chained in the Backrooms · EA $2.99 933 68% 28k $84k (exactly $83,690) Task+ Studios
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Liminal Shroud $12.99 91 89% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Everdeep Studios
Sudoku Mansion $14.99 69 98% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Vault Door Studios
Bobo's Big Tower $9.99 93 92% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) SillyKitty
The Succubus Trap Island $13.99 59 84% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tsukinomizu Project
The Maze Survivor: The 9th Entrants $8.99 62 82% 1.9k $17k (exactly $16,721) 崔资坦独立游戏Triztan IndieGame
The Strange Story Of Brian Fisher: Chapter 2 $14.99 34 94% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Intetic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.