Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Mystery

Only 9 developers shipped a Mystery Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sol Cesto, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $27k, ×43 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3233 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 42.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Median $27k (exactly $26,889)
Top 25% $96k (exactly $95,952)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 46
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 104,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.2k, median $27k, 1 in 4 over $95k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.2k. 16 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M Tactical Breach Wizards 2024 · $6.9M ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M Soul Hackers 2 2022 · $4.1M Sol Cesto 2026 · $2.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Tactical Breach Wizards older $19.99 11,485 97% 345k $6.9M (exactly $6,887,554) Suspicious Developments
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game older $14.99 9,991 84% 300k $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) AtomTeam
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Death end re;Quest older $29.99 1,034 77% 31k $930k (exactly $930,290) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
YIIK: A Postmodern RPG older $19.99 1,006 80% 30k $603k (exactly $603,298) Ackk Studios
Dragon Star Varnir older $39.99 453 78% 14k $543k (exactly $543,464) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Death end re;Quest 2 older $39.99 337 66% 10k $404k (exactly $404,299) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Tactical Takedown $19.99 160 89% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Strange Scaffold
Cairn: Mathair's Curse $19.99 48 89% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Ross McRitchie
Vegangsters $12.99 69 92% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Poison Pill Games
Dreamcards $9.99 82 98% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) Soneka Games
Memoria Arcana $4.99 28 100% 840 $4.2k (exactly $4,192) Reija
The Tower of Shadows $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Alien Création
Integrity $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) DawnDuck

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.