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Should I ship a Mystery Physics game?
Physics + Mystery
Of 153 developers who shipped a Mystery Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 332 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $950, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×329 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 332 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $945 (exactly $945) |
| Top 25% | $5.5k (exactly $5,513) |
| Top 5% | $206k (exactly $206,468) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 153 |
| Released games | 381 |
| Announced | 332 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.49 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
- Price point
- $5.49 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.49.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 360,464 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 72 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 332 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
PEAK 2025 · $72M 
Big Walk 2026 · $19M 
Content Warning 2024 · $17M 
Chained Together 2024 · $8.2M 
Amnesia: Rebirth 2020 · $7.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | PEAK | $7.99 | 301,964 94% | 9.1M | $72M (exactly $72,380,771) | Team PEAK | |
| | Big Walk | $19.99 | 32,470 95% | 974k | $19M (exactly $19,472,259) | House House | |
| | Content Warning | older | $7.99 | 72,444 93% | 2.2M | $17M (exactly $17,364,827) | Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog |
| | Chained Together | older | $4.99 | 54,747 89% | 1.6M | $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) | Anegar Games, Lab42 |
| | Amnesia: Rebirth | older | $29.99 | 7,894 77% | 237k | $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) | Frictional Games |
 | Gloomwood | · EA older | $19.99 | 7,495 95% | 225k | $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) | Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta) |
 | Hidden Deep | · EA older | $24.99 | 4,293 76% | 129k | $3.2M (exactly $3,218,462) | Cogwheel Software |
 | A Game About Digging A Hole™ | $4.99 | 18,785 89% | 564k | $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) | DoubleBee | |
 | Exo One | older | $16.99 | 5,053 89% | 152k | $2.6M (exactly $2,575,514) | Exbleative |
 | DARQ: Complete Edition | older | $19.99 | 3,575 94% | 107k | $2.1M (exactly $2,143,928) | Unfold Games |
 | Bionic Bay | $19.99 | 750 84% | 23k | $450k (exactly $449,775) | Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy | |
 | Meltopia | $6.99 | 1,679 85% | 50k | $352k (exactly $352,086) | Garden of Dreams | |
 | RATSHAKER™ | $2.99 | 3,011 92% | 90k | $270k (exactly $270,087) | Sunscorched Studios | |
 | Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate | $49.99 | 149 62% | 4.5k | $223k (exactly $223,455) | Mighty Eyes | |
 | Machinika: Atlas | $11.99 | 574 76% | 17k | $206k (exactly $206,468) | Littlefield Studio | |
 | Pinball Spire | $14.99 | 410 84% | 12k | $184k (exactly $184,377) | Apparition Games | |
 | WE ARE SO DEAD | · EA | $7.99 | 672 73% | 20k | $161k (exactly $161,078) | REAL PLAYERS |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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