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Should I ship a Multiple Endings Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Multiple Endings
Only 11 developers shipped a Multiple Endings Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×215 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 32 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $23,084) |
| Top 5% | $135k (exactly $134,932) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 111 |
| Announced | 32 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $8.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 677 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
OMORI 2020 · $48M 
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ 2019 · $25M 
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance 2024 · $14M 
Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion 2023 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | OMORI | older | $19.99 | 79,836 97% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,877,649) | OMOCAT, LLC |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ | older | $59.99 | 13,923 85% | 418k | $25M (exactly $25,057,223) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance | older | $59.99 | 7,858 91% | 236k | $14M (exactly $14,142,043) | ATLUS |
| | Hero's Adventure: Road to Passion | older | $17.99 | 22,287 84% | 669k | $12M (exactly $12,028,294) | 半瓶醋工作室（Half Amateur Studio） |
 | Armello | older | $24.99 | 11,013 82% | 330k | $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) | League of Geeks |
 | Griftlands | older | $19.99 | 13,440 93% | 403k | $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) | Klei Entertainment |
 | Fate Seeker | older | $21.09 | 11,930 90% | 358k | $7.5M (exactly $7,548,111) | JSL Entertainment |
 | Yes, Your Grace | older | $19.99 | 12,571 87% | 377k | $7.5M (exactly $7,538,829) | Brave At Night |
 | STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ II - The Sith Lords™ | older | $9.99 | 22,357 93% | 671k | $6.7M (exactly $6,700,393) | Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Lin… (Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Linux, & Windows Update)) |
 | Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action | $19.99 | 225 84% | 6.8k | $135k (exactly $134,932) | Moonana | |
 | Choice of Life: Wild Islands | $6.99 | 342 92% | 10k | $72k (exactly $71,717) | Blazing Planet Studio | |
 | Dice 'n Goblins | $13.99 | 55 90% | 1.7k | $23k (exactly $23,084) | Tsukumogami Software | |
 | Reptilian Rising | $29.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $6.3k (exactly $6,298) | Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper L… (Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper Luminal Games) | |
 | Afterlife Gladiator | $9.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | BakarLabs | |
 | 逐末之地：60s Exploring the Endless Land：60s | · EA | $6.99 | 14 85% | 420 | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) | Dreamy_Chat |
 | Monster Path | $5.99 | 16 75% | 480 | $2.9k (exactly $2,875) | The Indie Accord | |
 | Rule or Fall | $4.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $748 (exactly $748) | Bad Concept, Retry | |
 | Ternion | · EA | $12.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $390 (exactly $390) | My Goody Unsafe Boar |
 | 36 Rounds | $1.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $60 (exactly $60) | YQA Game |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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