Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Multiple Endings

Of 25 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 47 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 47 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $210 → $85k → $838 → $1.3k → $150 → $4.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,266)
Top 5% $220k (exactly $220,475)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 73
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Multiple Endings; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RTS, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,237 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $630, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Last Train Home older $39.99 4,511 86% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,411,847) Ashborne Games
Train Valley 2 older $14.99 2,356 90% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,493) Alexey Davydov, Sergey Dvoynikov, Timof… (Alexey Davydov, Sergey Dvoynikov, Timofey Shargorodskiy, Flazm)
War Room older $29.99 661 51% 20k $595k (exactly $594,702) Binge Gaming OU, Wastelands Interactive
Three Kingdoms The Last Warlord older $3.99 3,611 68% 108k $432k (exactly $432,237) LongYou Game Studio
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
Halluci-Sabbat of Koishi $7.99 701 91% 21k $168k (exactly $168,030) ZRIGN 地霊研究院
Chromosome Evil 2 older $19.99 252 88% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L., dovganovskiy
The Monstrous Horror Show older $14.99 282 89% 8.5k $127k (exactly $126,815) kaniheadcrab
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
The Land Beneath Us older $14.99 230 79% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) FairPlay Studios
Status One $14.99 30 73% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) LastCall Studio
NAPOLEON: RULE OF IRON $19.99 22 90% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Eisengeist Studio
National Transit · EA $7.99 47 97% 1.4k $11k (exactly $11,266) NationQ Studio
CoinPit $6.99 24 66% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Trollix Games
Phone Flipper Simulator $9.99 14 64% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Deep Luck Game
Kaiten $14.99 3 33% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Fragilent

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.