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Should I ship a PvP Multiple Endings game?
PvP + Multiple Endings
Of 33 developers who shipped a PvP Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×332 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 82 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $330 (exactly $330) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) |
| Top 25% | $6.6k (exactly $6,584) |
| Top 5% | $498k (exactly $497,802) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 33 |
| Released games | 105 |
| Announced | 82 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvP
- effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Multiple Endings; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, PvE
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 4,135 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $330. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
BIGFOOT 2017 · EA · $11M 
Armello 2015 · $8.3M 
Lost Castle / 失落城堡 2016 · $5.5M 
Disciples: Liberation 2021 · $3.2M 
Salt and Sacrifice 2023 · $1.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | BIGFOOT | · EA older | $19.99 | 17,818 83% | 535k | $11M (exactly $10,685,455) | CyberLight Game Studio |
| | Armello | older | $24.99 | 11,013 82% | 330k | $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) | League of Geeks |
| | Lost Castle / 失落城堡 | older | $9.99 | 18,417 87% | 553k | $5.5M (exactly $5,519,575) | Hunter Studio |
| | Disciples: Liberation | older | $39.99 | 2,706 73% | 81k | $3.2M (exactly $3,246,388) | Frima Studio |
| | Salt and Sacrifice | older | $19.99 | 1,738 62% | 52k | $1.0M (exactly $1,042,279) | Devoured Studios, Ska Studios |
 | Card-en-Ciel | $24.99 | 856 90% | 26k | $642k (exactly $641,743) | INTI CREATES CO., LTD. | |
 | Granny: Escape Together | $9.99 | 1,661 79% | 50k | $498k (exactly $497,802) | CreepyToad | |
 | Shovel Knight Pocket Dungeon | older | $19.99 | 518 91% | 16k | $311k (exactly $310,645) | VINE, Yacht Club Games |
 | Class of '09: Puzzle Showdown | $19.99 | 333 57% | 10k | $200k (exactly $199,700) | SBN3 | |
 | Spirit Swap: Lofi Beats to Match-3 To | $19.99 | 239 94% | 7.2k | $143k (exactly $143,328) | Soft Not Weak, LLC | |
 | SIDE EFFECTS | $4.99 | 858 83% | 26k | $128k (exactly $128,443) | hirohun, Mr.Pootsley, Jaybooty, Lofar42 | |
 | 3DMurderMystery TheAshenYou | $18.99 | 38 73% | 1.1k | $22k (exactly $21,649) | ぐだぐだぶとん | |
 | Eternal Sword Tomb | · EA | $8.99 | 68 77% | 2.0k | $18k (exactly $18,340) | 阿郎 |
 | Outbreak: Shades of Horror | · EA | $29.99 | 9 22% | 270 | $8.1k (exactly $8,097) | Dead Drop Studios LLC |
 | PENTALOOP -ペンタループ- | $3.99 | 55 72% | 1.7k | $6.6k (exactly $6,584) | イバラユーギ×ひろゆ～プロジェクト | |
 | Forehead Chip | $9.99 | 18 94% | 540 | $5.4k (exactly $5,395) | Naturally Intelligent |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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