Do I ship it?

Games › Motorbike › Motorbike + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Motorbike game?

Motorbike + Sports

Only 18 developers shipped a Sports Motorbike game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×9.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2626 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 11 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 11 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motorbike + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $8.2k → $1.2k → $742 → $38k → $2.5k → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motorbike + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,276)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 122
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motorbike, Sports; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Physics, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 6,776 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motorbike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Action-AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  2. + MotocrossLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  3. + SimulationPoor odds31 devs · median $2.3k · 36 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds12 devs · median $1.5k · 14 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $1.0k · 23 announced
  6. + BikesPoor odds24 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $959 · 23 announced
  8. + RacingPoor odds45 devs · median $898 · 55 announced
  9. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $898 · 36 announced
  10. + DrivingPoor odds33 devs · median $898 · 45 announced
  11. + Automobile SimPoor odds24 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  12. + OffroadPoor odds11 devs · median $839 · 18 announced

All 18 pairs on the Motorbike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Crew Motorfest 2024 · $51M RIDE 4 2020 · $12M MX vs ATV Legends 2022 · $5.4M RIDE 5 2023 · $5.1M RIDE 3 2018 · $4.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
RIDE 5 older $49.99 3,368 82% 101k $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 3 older $29.99 4,534 84% 136k $4.1M (exactly $4,079,240) Milestone S.r.l.
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Ride 2 older $24.99 2,499 87% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,873,500) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
Monster Energy Supercross 25 - The Official Video Game $59.99 276 49% 8.3k $497k (exactly $496,717) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
MXGP 24: The Official Game $59.99 93 26% 2.8k $167k (exactly $167,372) Artefacts Studio
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Speedway Club Manager 25 $11.99 106 91% 3.2k $38k (exactly $38,128) Marcin Dopierała, Paweł Krzemiński
Moto Rush Reborn $12.99 43 97% 1.3k $17k (exactly $16,757) Baltoro Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.