Do I ship it?

GamesMotorbikeMotorbike + Offroad

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Motorbike Offroad game?

Motorbike + Offroad

Only 11 developers shipped a Motorbike Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is up 140% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motorbike + Offroad
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $1.5k → $718 → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motorbike + Offroad: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 40
Announced 18
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation
Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motorbike, Offroad
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 95% positive over 4,445 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $840, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motorbike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Action-AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  2. + MotocrossLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  3. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 11 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds31 devs · median $2.3k · 36 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationPoor odds12 devs · median $1.5k · 14 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $1.0k · 23 announced
  7. + BikesPoor odds24 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  8. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $959 · 23 announced
  9. + RacingPoor odds45 devs · median $898 · 55 announced
  10. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $898 · 36 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds33 devs · median $898 · 45 announced
  12. + Automobile SimPoor odds24 devs · median $898 · 24 announced

All 18 pairs on the Motorbike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
MXGP3 - The Official Motocross Videogame older $19.99 1,032 86% 31k $619k (exactly $618,890) Milestone S.r.l.
MXGP PRO older $19.99 945 84% 28k $567k (exactly $566,716) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Supercross Encore older $29.99 629 62% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame older $9.99 1,289 82% 39k $386k (exactly $386,313) Milestone S.r.l.
Life in red line · EA $17.99 26 76% 780 $14k (exactly $14,032) Pecha games
Two Tired to Mountain $5.99 15 100% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Peter Schwade
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
MX Racing World $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Nitx Games
Dark Rally $6.99 4 50% 120 $839 (exactly $839) PLOP Studio
Autos $3.99 6 0% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Leedo Studio
Quad Puzzler $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) SmartGames
Hot Rod Racer $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ZeNfA Productions
Petro Hunter $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) The Origin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.