Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Motorbike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Motorbike Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Motorbike

Of 24 developers who shipped a Motorbike Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210. 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 1445% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1445% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Motorbike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.6k → $718 → $1.6k → $898 → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Motorbike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,349)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 63
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1445% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Motorbike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Physics, Racing, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 24,664 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Burnout™ Paradise Remastered older $19.99 7,348 64% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,406,596) Stellar Entertainment, Criterion Games
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
RIDE older $19.99 2,107 80% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,263,568) Milestone S.r.l.
TT Isle of Man: Ride on the Edge 2 older $29.99 1,111 82% 33k $1.0M (exactly $999,567) KT Racing
TT Isle Of Man: Ride on the Edge 3 older $49.99 653 76% 20k $979k (exactly $979,304) Nacon Studio Milan
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
MXGP 24: The Official Game $59.99 93 26% 2.8k $167k (exactly $167,372) Artefacts Studio
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Wheelie City $16.99 36 72% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Devora Studios
Life in red line · EA $17.99 26 76% 780 $14k (exactly $14,032) Pecha games
Motorcycle Ride: Infinity · EA $5.99 43 81% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Blightcore Studio
Grind Rush $15.99 9 66% 270 $4.3k (exactly $4,317) AND GEAR
Hover REV Hispeed Burst $10.99 5 60% 150 $1.6k (exactly $1,648) JKK_WORKS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.