Do I ship it?

Games › Motorbike › Motorbike + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Motorbike game?

Motorbike + Physics

Of 23 developers who shipped a Physics Motorbike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 23 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 225% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 23 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motorbike + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $768k → $7.2k → $1.2k → $742 → $1.5k → $7.7k → $2.7k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motorbike + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,276)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 66
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motorbike, Physics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Driving, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 30,288 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motorbike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Action-AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  2. + MotocrossLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  3. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 11 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds31 devs · median $2.3k · 36 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationPoor odds12 devs · median $1.5k · 14 announced
  6. + BikesPoor odds24 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $959 · 23 announced
  8. + RacingPoor odds45 devs · median $898 · 55 announced
  9. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $898 · 36 announced
  10. + DrivingPoor odds33 devs · median $898 · 45 announced
  11. + Automobile SimPoor odds24 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  12. + OffroadPoor odds11 devs · median $839 · 18 announced

All 18 pairs on the Motorbike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MX Bikes 2019 · EA · $37M Mon Bazou 2025 · $9.6M MX vs ATV Legends 2022 · $5.4M RIDE 5 2023 · $5.1M Sledders 2025 · $3.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
RIDE 5 older $49.99 3,368 82% 101k $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) Milestone S.r.l.
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
MotoGP™24 older $39.99 996 83% 30k $1.2M (exactly $1,194,901) Milestone S.r.l.
TT Isle of Man: Ride on the Edge 2 older $29.99 1,111 82% 33k $1.0M (exactly $999,567) KT Racing
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
TT Isle Of Man: Ride on the Edge 3 older $49.99 653 76% 20k $979k (exactly $979,304) Nacon Studio Milan
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
Monster Energy Supercross 25 - The Official Video Game $59.99 276 49% 8.3k $497k (exactly $496,717) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
MXGP 24: The Official Game $59.99 93 26% 2.8k $167k (exactly $167,372) Artefacts Studio
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Wheelie City $16.99 36 72% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Devora Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.