Do I ship it?

GamesMotorbikeMotorbike + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Motorbike game?

Motorbike + Simulation

Of 31 developers who shipped a Simulation Motorbike game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×1605 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 36 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 36 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motorbike + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $7.2k → $1.2k → $742 → $16k → $2.3k → $988k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motorbike + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,349)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 133
Announced 36
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motorbike
effort 7 / 10 · low · two-wheel physics and rider animation
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motorbike, Simulation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Physics, Racing, Sports
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 13,793 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motorbike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Action-AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  2. + MotocrossLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  3. + SportsPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 11 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds12 devs · median $1.5k · 14 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $1.0k · 23 announced
  6. + BikesPoor odds24 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds12 devs · median $959 · 23 announced
  8. + RacingPoor odds45 devs · median $898 · 55 announced
  9. + ActionPoor odds30 devs · median $898 · 36 announced
  10. + DrivingPoor odds33 devs · median $898 · 45 announced
  11. + Automobile SimPoor odds24 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  12. + OffroadPoor odds11 devs · median $839 · 18 announced

All 18 pairs on the Motorbike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Crew Motorfest older $69.99 24,230 78% 727k $51M (exactly $50,875,731) Ubisoft Ivory Tower
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
RIDE 4 older $39.99 9,921 83% 298k $12M (exactly $11,902,224) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 5 older $49.99 3,368 82% 101k $5.1M (exactly $5,050,990) Milestone S.r.l.
RIDE 3 older $29.99 4,534 84% 136k $4.1M (exactly $4,079,240) Milestone S.r.l.
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
Ride 2 older $24.99 2,499 87% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,873,500) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
Finnish Cottage Simulator · EA $14.99 3,396 93% 102k $1.5M (exactly $1,527,181) RANELA GAMES
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™25 $49.99 592 74% 18k $888k (exactly $887,822) Milestone S.r.l.
MotoGP™26 $59.99 225 64% 6.8k $405k (exactly $404,932) Milestone S.r.l.
VRacer Hoverbike $29.99 307 89% 9.2k $276k (exactly $276,208) VertexBreakers
MXGP 24: The Official Game $59.99 93 26% 2.8k $167k (exactly $167,372) Artefacts Studio
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Wheelie City $16.99 36 72% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Devora Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.