Do I ship it?

Games › Motocross › Motocross + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports Motocross game?

Motocross + Sports

Only 14 developers shipped a Sports Motocross game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2626 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motocross + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.5k → $1.0k → $742 → $478 → $839 → $103k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motocross + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $478 (exactly $478)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 73
Announced 13
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motocross
effort 7 / 10 · low · bike physics plus track content
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motocross, Sports; all of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Physics, Racing
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 5,472 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $840, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motocross with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BikesLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  2. + MotorbikeLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  3. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $599 · 14 announced
  4. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $478 · 22 announced
  5. + SimulationPoor odds15 devs · median $449 · 12 announced
  6. + OffroadDead7 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  7. + ActionDead8 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  8. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $478 · 18 announced
  9. + ArcadeDead9 devs · median $449 · 15 announced
  10. + Automobile SimDead9 devs · median $299 · 13 announced

All 10 pairs on the Motocross page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MX vs ATV Legends 2022 · $5.4M Sledders 2025 · $3.9M MX vs. ATV Reflex 2010 · $1.7M TrackDayR 2021 · EA · $1.7M MX vs ATV All Out 2018 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
MXGP 2021 - The Official Motocross Videogame older $39.99 1,165 85% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,650) Milestone S.r.l.
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame 3 older $24.99 1,039 88% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Milestone S.r.l.
Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame 6 older $49.99 512 71% 15k $768k (exactly $767,846) Milestone S.r.l.
Monster Energy Supercross 25 - The Official Video Game $59.99 276 49% 8.3k $497k (exactly $496,717) Milestone S.r.l.
VMX · EA $14.99 229 89% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Break Free Interactive
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
WINCH IT OUT $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) ARASLANIX
MX Racing World $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Nitx Games
Dark Rally $6.99 4 50% 120 $839 (exactly $839) PLOP Studio
Mini Games Retro 90s $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Ewerton José Wantroba
Hydrofoil Surfing $4.99 4 0% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Nightwork Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.