Do I ship it?

GamesMotocrossMotocross + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Motocross game?

Motocross + Arcade

Only 9 developers shipped an Arcade Motocross game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, WINCH IT OUT, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $450 against a market of $1.5k. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 15 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motocross + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.9k → $599 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motocross + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $719 (exactly $719)
Top 5% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 39
Announced 15
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motocross
effort 7 / 10 · low · bike physics plus track content
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motocross, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 73% positive over 30 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $1.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motocross with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BikesLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  2. + SportsLong shot14 devs · median $839 · 13 announced
  3. + MotorbikeLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  4. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $599 · 14 announced
  5. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $478 · 22 announced
  6. + SimulationPoor odds15 devs · median $449 · 12 announced
  7. + OffroadDead7 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  8. + ActionDead8 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  9. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $478 · 18 announced
  10. + Automobile SimDead9 devs · median $299 · 13 announced

All 10 pairs on the Motocross page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
Laika: Aged Through Blood older $19.99 5,938 91% 178k $3.6M (exactly $3,561,019) Brainwash Gang
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame 6 older $49.99 512 71% 15k $768k (exactly $767,846) Milestone S.r.l.
Motordoom older $13.99 174 94% 5.2k $73k (exactly $73,028) Hobo Cat Games
MX Nitro: Unleashed older $9.99 124 79% 3.7k $37k (exactly $37,163) Saber Interactive
Minit Fun Racer older $2.99 253 97% 7.6k $23k (exactly $22,694) JW, Kitty, Jukio, Dom
Shred! Remastered older $4.99 100 59% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,970) ASBO Interactive
Mini Car Racing - Tiny Split Screen Tournament older $9.99 38 76% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) EpiXR Games UG
Wide Open · EA older $19.99 15 80% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Talpidae
WINCH IT OUT $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) ARASLANIX
MX Racing World $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Nitx Games
Mini Games Retro 90s $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Ewerton José Wantroba
Hydrofoil Surfing $4.99 4 0% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Nightwork Studios
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Bike Stunt 3D Freestyle $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nitx Games
Christmas Drift - Delivery Simulator $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) GLOBAL VISION SOLUTIONS SRL
Sunset Racer $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) KAMGAM
Bike Stunts Simulator · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games
Rutted $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ApeXPloit Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.