Do I ship it?

Games › Motocross › Motocross + Racing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Racing Motocross game?

Motocross + Racing

Of 23 developers who shipped a Racing Motocross game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 22 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is up 285% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 285% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motocross + Racing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $7.2k → $898 → $239 → $478 → $839 → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motocross + Racing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $478 (exactly $478)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $988k (exactly $988,035)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 97
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motocross
effort 7 / 10 · low · bike physics plus track content
Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motocross, Racing; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Physics, Bikes, Character Customization
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Family Friendly, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 5,530 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $980k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motocross with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BikesLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  2. + SportsLong shot14 devs · median $839 · 13 announced
  3. + MotorbikeLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  4. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $599 · 14 announced
  5. + SimulationPoor odds15 devs · median $449 · 12 announced
  6. + OffroadDead7 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  7. + ActionDead8 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  8. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $478 · 18 announced
  9. + ArcadeDead9 devs · median $449 · 15 announced
  10. + Automobile SimDead9 devs · median $299 · 13 announced

All 10 pairs on the Motocross page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MX Bikes 2019 · EA · $37M MX vs ATV Legends 2022 · $5.4M Sledders 2025 · $3.9M MX vs. ATV Reflex 2010 · $1.7M TrackDayR 2021 · EA · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
MXGP 2021 - The Official Motocross Videogame older $39.99 1,165 85% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,650) Milestone S.r.l.
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 older $19.99 1,580 68% 47k $948k (exactly $947,526) Play2Chill S.A.
Monster Energy Supercross 25 - The Official Video Game $59.99 276 49% 8.3k $497k (exactly $496,717) Milestone S.r.l.
VMX · EA $14.99 229 89% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Break Free Interactive
Hangin' Off! · EA $5.99 45 93% 1.4k $8.1k (exactly $8,086) Sk1ds Retro Works
Stunt Bike Extreme $4.99 21 95% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) Hyperkani
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
WINCH IT OUT $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) ARASLANIX
MX Racing World $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Nitx Games
Dark Rally $6.99 4 50% 120 $839 (exactly $839) PLOP Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.