Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Motocross

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Motocross Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Motocross

Only 9 developers shipped a Motocross Automobile Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, VMX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $300 against a market of $1.5k. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Motocross
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.6k → $898 → $1.9k
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Motocross: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $102,981)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 34
Announced 13
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 70% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Motocross
effort 7 / 10 · low · bike physics plus track content

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim, Motocross
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 40,087 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
VMX · EA $14.99 229 89% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Break Free Interactive
Minit Fun Racer older $2.99 253 97% 7.6k $23k (exactly $22,694) JW, Kitty, Jukio, Dom
Wheelie City $16.99 36 72% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Devora Studios
Shred! Remastered older $4.99 100 59% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,970) ASBO Interactive
Eggcelerate! to the Tropics older $11.99 37 97% 1.1k $13k (exactly $13,309) Tim Beaudet, Tyre Bytes LLC
Mini Car Racing - Tiny Split Screen Tournament older $9.99 38 76% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) EpiXR Games UG
Downhill Pro Racer · EA older $12.99 22 77% 660 $8.6k (exactly $8,573) Germán de la Fuente
WINCH IT OUT $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) ARASLANIX
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Car Crash Chaos $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Berk Kalfa
In A Wheel $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) ElyDev
Motorcross Simulator $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) rider
Christmas Drift - Delivery Simulator $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) GLOBAL VISION SOLUTIONS SRL
The Ultimate USA Road Trip 2026 $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) OH Games Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.