Do I ship it?

Games › Motocross › Motocross + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Motocross game?

Motocross + Action

Only 8 developers shipped an Action Motocross game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, VMX, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $600 against a market of $1.5k. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 915% on the market, 7 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motocross + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $8.2k → $898 → $742 → $599
Outcomes for Motocross + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $102,981)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 37
Announced 7
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 915% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motocross
effort 7 / 10 · low · bike physics plus track content
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motocross, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 10,911 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motocross with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BikesLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  2. + SportsLong shot14 devs · median $839 · 13 announced
  3. + MotorbikeLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  4. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $599 · 14 announced
  5. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $478 · 22 announced
  6. + SimulationPoor odds15 devs · median $449 · 12 announced
  7. + OffroadDead7 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  8. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $478 · 18 announced
  9. + ArcadeDead9 devs · median $449 · 15 announced
  10. + Automobile SimDead9 devs · median $299 · 13 announced

All 10 pairs on the Motocross page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Laika: Aged Through Blood 2023 · $3.6M MX vs. ATV Reflex 2010 · $1.7M MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame 2014 · $386k VMX 2026 · EA · $103k Motordoom 2024 · $73k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Laika: Aged Through Blood older $19.99 5,938 91% 178k $3.6M (exactly $3,561,019) Brainwash Gang
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
MXGP - The Official Motocross Videogame older $9.99 1,289 82% 39k $386k (exactly $386,313) Milestone S.r.l.
VMX · EA $14.99 229 89% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Break Free Interactive
Motordoom older $13.99 174 94% 5.2k $73k (exactly $73,028) Hobo Cat Games
Minit Fun Racer older $2.99 253 97% 7.6k $23k (exactly $22,694) JW, Kitty, Jukio, Dom
Mini Car Racing - Tiny Split Screen Tournament older $9.99 38 76% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,389) EpiXR Games UG
MotoX older $7.99 34 17% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) Enver Studio
Rocket Jockey older $7.99 34 94% 1.0k $8.2k (exactly $8,150) Rocket Science Games, Jordan Freeman Gr… (Rocket Science Games, Jordan Freeman Group, SegaSoft)
Down Fast VR · EA older $11.99 18 27% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) HomeBrewGames
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
Sakura Drift $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Miki Games
Hydrofoil Surfing $4.99 4 0% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Nightwork Studios
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Unleashed Fmx $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) KD Studios, TGO Midia
Car Crash Chaos $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Berk Kalfa
motorcycle combat $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) QplusQ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.