Do I ship it?

GamesMotocrossMotocross + Offroad

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Motocross Offroad game?

Motocross + Offroad

Only 7 developers shipped a Motocross Offroad game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $960 against a market of $1.5k. 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 9 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motocross + Offroad
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.5k → $1.2k
Outcomes for Motocross + Offroad: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 42
Announced 9
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motocross
effort 7 / 10 · low · bike physics plus track content
Offroad
effort 7 / 10 · low · terrain and suspension physics

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motocross, Offroad
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 55,110 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $960, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 9 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motocross with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BikesLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  2. + SportsLong shot14 devs · median $839 · 13 announced
  3. + MotorbikeLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  4. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $599 · 14 announced
  5. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $478 · 22 announced
  6. + SimulationPoor odds15 devs · median $449 · 12 announced
  7. + ActionDead8 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  8. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $478 · 18 announced
  9. + ArcadeDead9 devs · median $449 · 15 announced
  10. + Automobile SimDead9 devs · median $299 · 13 announced

All 10 pairs on the Motocross page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
MX vs ATV Legends older $39.99 4,524 82% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,443) Rainbow Studios
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
MXGP3 - The Official Motocross Videogame older $19.99 1,032 86% 31k $619k (exactly $618,890) Milestone S.r.l.
MXGP PRO older $19.99 945 84% 28k $567k (exactly $566,716) Milestone S.r.l.
MX vs. ATV Supercross Encore older $29.99 629 62% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
WINCH IT OUT $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) ARASLANIX
MX Racing World $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Nitx Games
Dark Rally $6.99 4 50% 120 $839 (exactly $839) PLOP Studio
Car Crash Chaos $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Berk Kalfa
Rutted $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ApeXPloit Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.