Do I ship it?

Games › Motocross › Motocross + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Motocross game?

Motocross + Simulation

Only 15 developers shipped a Simulation Motocross game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sledders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 235% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 235% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Motocross + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.5k → $898 → $742 → $449 → $839 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Motocross + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 66
Announced 12
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Motocross
effort 7 / 10 · low · bike physics plus track content
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Motocross, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 5,001 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Motocross with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BikesLong shot12 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  2. + SportsLong shot14 devs · median $839 · 13 announced
  3. + MotorbikeLong shot17 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  4. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $599 · 14 announced
  5. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $478 · 22 announced
  6. + OffroadDead7 devs · median $959 · 9 announced
  7. + ActionDead8 devs · median $599 · 7 announced
  8. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $478 · 18 announced
  9. + ArcadeDead9 devs · median $449 · 15 announced
  10. + Automobile SimDead9 devs · median $299 · 13 announced

All 10 pairs on the Motocross page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MX Bikes 2019 · EA · $37M Sledders 2025 · $3.9M MX vs. ATV Reflex 2010 · $1.7M TrackDayR 2021 · EA · $1.7M MX vs ATV All Out 2018 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MX Bikes · EA older $34.99 35,684 94% 1.1M $37M (exactly $37,457,495) PiBoSo
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
MX vs. ATV Reflex older $19.99 2,904 88% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,741,529) Rainbow Studios, THQ Nordic
TrackDayR · EA older $24.99 2,213 86% 66k $1.7M (exactly $1,659,086) MadCow S.r.l.
MX vs ATV All Out older $39.99 1,332 81% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,598,000) Rainbow Studios
MXGP 2021 - The Official Motocross Videogame older $39.99 1,165 85% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,650) Milestone S.r.l.
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
Motorcycle Mechanic Simulator 2021 older $19.99 1,580 68% 47k $948k (exactly $947,526) Play2Chill S.A.
Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame 3 older $24.99 1,039 88% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Milestone S.r.l.
Wheelie City $16.99 36 72% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Devora Studios
MX Bodycam Bikes Racing · EA $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) GLOBAL SCRIPTUM
WINCH IT OUT $4.99 13 84% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) ARASLANIX
Dark Rally $6.99 4 50% 120 $839 (exactly $839) PLOP Studio
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Unleashed Fmx $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) KD Studios, TGO Midia
Car Crash Chaos $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Berk Kalfa
Bike Stunt 3D Freestyle $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nitx Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.