Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Modern

Only 13 developers shipped a Modern-Day Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, VARLET, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $680, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×347 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 17 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 17 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $270 → $0 → $7.7k → $4.6k
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $684 (exactly $684)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,727)
Top 5% $218k (exactly $217,764)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 35
Announced 17
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Choices Matter, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 299 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $680, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
大千世界 older $3.99 2,289 86% 69k $274k (exactly $273,993) 滑稽工作室
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Terrain of Magical Expertise older $19.99 106 83% 3.2k $64k (exactly $63,568) NEO-C Productions L.L.C
AbsentedAge: Squarebound older $12.99 67 91% 2.0k $26k (exactly $26,110) terunon's Lab
SkullX: Aibohphobia $9.99 76 90% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) SkullX, DSTRCT Creatives
Status One $14.99 30 73% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) LastCall Studio
Survival Africa older $16.99 22 36% 660 $11k (exactly $11,213) MeanDean
AbsentedAge 2: Ghostbound older $12.99 24 100% 720 $9.4k (exactly $9,353) terunon's Lab
SAD RPG: A Social Anxiety Role Playing Game · EA older $7.99 37 51% 1.1k $8.9k (exactly $8,869) Evil Indie Games
中年失业模拟器2-When a man lose his job 2 $5.99 43 60% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Kwing works
Climber Girl $7.99 19 36% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) AlterLab Development
Metaneurosis $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Lazy Dev Studio
Lang Ops: Modern Greek (intro to learn language) $5.70 4 75% 120 $684 (exactly $684) Strange Volume Project
Critternauts $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Gergo V
HexArmy · EA $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nechtan
Fake Ducks: Spooky Chronicles $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Mattia De Berardinis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.