Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining Sandbox?

Sandbox + Mining

Of 126 developers who shipped a Mining Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 223 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1939 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 223 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 223 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 126
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $22k → $64k → $6.0k → $1.8k → $8.1k → $4.0k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 126
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,823)
Top 25% $116k (exactly $115,837)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391)
Developers, 2 yr 126
Released games 264
Announced 223
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Mining; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Crafting, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 72,035 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 223 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Hydroneer older $14.99 27,131 85% 814k $12M (exactly $12,200,811) Foulball Hangover
Gold Mining Simulator older $19.99 15,132 72% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,074,660) Code Horizon
Stationeers · EA older $34.99 8,597 88% 258k $9.0M (exactly $9,024,271) RocketWerkz
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
Lightyear Frontier · EA older $24.99 4,257 83% 128k $3.2M (exactly $3,191,473) FRAME BREAK
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
AETHUS $19.99 2,030 94% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,217,391) Pawsmonaut Games
The Last Starship $19.99 1,623 75% 49k $973k (exactly $973,313) Introversion Software
Planet Centauri $14.99 2,102 75% 63k $945k (exactly $945,269) Permadeath
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.