Should I ship a PvP Mini Golf game?
PvP + Mini Golf
Only 16 developers shipped a PvP Mini Golf game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tower Unite, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×6500 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 26 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) |
| Top 25% | $4.7k (exactly $4,668) |
| Top 5% | $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 50 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- PvP, Mini Golf; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Party Game, Physics
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, Third Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 25,707 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 26 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + BaseballFair
- + TransportationFair
- + BasketballFair
- + Football (American)Fair
- + BikesFair
- + GolfFair
- + World War IFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + BilliardsFair
- + TennisLong shot
- + TypingLong shot
- + SpellingLong shot
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Golf With Your Friends | older | $14.99 | 50,748 88% | 1.5M | $23M (exactly $22,821,376) | Blacklight Interactive, Team17 |
| | Tower Unite | $19.99 | 16,237 89% | 487k | $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) | PixelTail Games | |
| | Super Battle Golf | $12.99 | 9,325 93% | 280k | $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) | Brimstone | |
| | Walkabout Mini Golf VR | older | $24.99 | 3,094 97% | 93k | $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) | Mighty Coconut |
| | Golf Around! | older | $9.99 | 823 94% | 25k | $247k (exactly $246,653) | Hough Studio |
| | Golf Gang | older | $9.99 | 782 84% | 23k | $234k (exactly $234,365) | Lazy Monday Games |
| | Turbo Golf Racing | older | $9.99 | 635 85% | 19k | $190k (exactly $190,310) | Hugecalf Studios |
| | Golfie | older | $17.99 | 275 66% | 8.3k | $148k (exactly $148,418) | Triheart Studio |
| | Mad Tracks | older | $9.99 | 250 90% | 7.5k | $75k (exactly $74,925) | Loadinc Entertainment |
| | Dungeon Golf | older | $16.99 | 79 81% | 2.4k | $40k (exactly $40,266) | Ant Workshop Ltd |
| | Golf Gambit | · EA | $9.99 | 28 85% | 840 | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) | KB Entertainment |
| | PULLBACK RACERS | $3.99 | 39 94% | 1.2k | $4.7k (exactly $4,668) | SkyBrave, blazitt, Gevizz | |
| | Super Serious Golf | $4.99 | 22 100% | 660 | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) | Karnage Studios | |
| | Golftacular! | $5.99 | 17 94% | 510 | $3.1k (exactly $3,055) | Both Good | |
| | Mulligans Golf Game | · EA | $12.49 | 8 100% | 240 | $3.0k (exactly $2,998) | Indie Andy Games |
| | Golf Around 2 | $7.99 | 12 41% | 360 | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) | Hough Studio | |
| | Disc Golf | $6.99 | 13 84% | 390 | $2.7k (exactly $2,726) | Charles De Yoe | |
| | Disc Frenzy | $14.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $2.7k (exactly $2,698) | SupraOrbital Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.