Do I ship it?

GamesPvPPvP + Mini Golf

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Mini Golf game?

PvP + Mini Golf

Only 16 developers shipped a PvP Mini Golf game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tower Unite, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×6500 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 26 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvP + Mini Golf
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $3.0k → $8.4k → $2.7k → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvP + Mini Golf: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $4.7k (exactly $4,668)
Top 5% $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 50
Announced 26
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating
Mini Golf
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
PvP, Mini Golf; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Party Game, Physics
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Funny, Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 25,707 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 26 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvP with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + BaseballFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + TransportationFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + BasketballFair25 devs · median $2.6k · 28 announced
  4. + Football (American)Fair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  5. + BikesFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  6. + GolfFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  7. + World War IFair12 devs · median $1.3k · 14 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 48 announced
  9. + BilliardsFair18 devs · median $1.1k · 12 announced
  10. + TennisLong shot17 devs · median $899 · 15 announced
  11. + TypingLong shot28 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  12. + SpellingLong shot14 devs · median $719 · 17 announced

All 247 pairs on the PvP page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Golf With Your Friends older $14.99 50,748 88% 1.5M $23M (exactly $22,821,376) Blacklight Interactive, Team17
Tower Unite $19.99 16,237 89% 487k $9.7M (exactly $9,737,329) PixelTail Games
Super Battle Golf $12.99 9,325 93% 280k $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) Brimstone
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
Golf Around! older $9.99 823 94% 25k $247k (exactly $246,653) Hough Studio
Golf Gang older $9.99 782 84% 23k $234k (exactly $234,365) Lazy Monday Games
Turbo Golf Racing older $9.99 635 85% 19k $190k (exactly $190,310) Hugecalf Studios
Golfie older $17.99 275 66% 8.3k $148k (exactly $148,418) Triheart Studio
Mad Tracks older $9.99 250 90% 7.5k $75k (exactly $74,925) Loadinc Entertainment
Dungeon Golf older $16.99 79 81% 2.4k $40k (exactly $40,266) Ant Workshop Ltd
Golf Gambit · EA $9.99 28 85% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) KB Entertainment
PULLBACK RACERS $3.99 39 94% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) SkyBrave, blazitt, Gevizz
Super Serious Golf $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Karnage Studios
Golftacular! $5.99 17 94% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Both Good
Mulligans Golf Game · EA $12.49 8 100% 240 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) Indie Andy Games
Golf Around 2 $7.99 12 41% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Hough Studio
Disc Golf $6.99 13 84% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Charles De Yoe
Disc Frenzy $14.99 6 100% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) SupraOrbital Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.