Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Military

Of 20 developers who shipped a Military Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $190k, ×297 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $13k; 1 in 20 cleared $23M, ×36776 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 297.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $158k → $738k → $193k → $187k → $767k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $13k (exactly $12,579)
Median $187k (exactly $186,666)
Top 25% $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $23,095,425)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 143
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, 4X
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 39,097 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $13k, median $190k, 1 in 4 over $2.6M, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $13k. 3 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV 2020 · $24M Battle Brothers 2017 · $23M Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era 2026 · EA · $23M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition older $19.99 21,302 89% 639k $13M (exactly $12,774,809) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition older $19.99 18,004 91% 540k $11M (exactly $10,796,999) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac))
ENDLESS Legend™ 2 · EA $49.99 2,476 83% 74k $3.7M (exactly $3,713,257) AMPLITUDE Studios
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Heroes of Science and Fiction $29.99 852 89% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Oxymoron Games
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Warnament $12.99 479 84% 14k $187k (exactly $186,666) Luden.io

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.